Winter

Orange glow, night's breath,
Cold fingers hide the sunrise:
Grey dawn, Winter comes.

Please read Michelle's Tiffin Box blog, it will warm you up!

The Middle Game in Diplomacy

For those that don't know, I am a very keen games player...   I'm republishing the following to help, errrr. friends with an essential basic few concepts to help them in planning their strategies!

The Middle Game in Diplomacy

Whatever country you are playing there are a few basic guidelines which you need to follow, unless you derive a clear practical benefit from not doing so. Much of what I have to say will strike the better players amongst you as being pretty self-evident, but I have seen many glaring where these underlying tenets have been ignored by the players, to their own eventual discomfort. 

The board and countries in Diplomacy fall naturally into two parts. These bits, for want of more interesting names, are the Western Triangle and the Eastern Square. The opening period of play should see you establish a fairly solid relationship with one of your neighbours and the demise of the other one(s) in your part of the board…

You will now have to evaluate your position and determine what course, or courses, of action will lead to your final victory. The problem that you have is that several other players are also scheming towards their own inevitable final victory!

The critical factor during and immediately after the first two to three years is whether you have been able to crush all but one (or even all) of your neighbours before the other part of the board has been able to achieve a similar state. This means, for example, that if you are England you have reduced or eliminated Germany and/or England before Russia has reduced or eliminated Italy, Austria and/or Turkey.

The Politics of Defeat

It is important to bear in mind exactly what you're going to do if you haven't reached the delightful state of affairs described above. If you haven't, then you are going to have to co-operate with your neighbours to stop the other part of the board from overwhelming your side.

If you are part of a conflict which has yet to succeed in coming o the limited resolution described above and the other side of the board is already there, then you must seriously consider burying the hatchet with your immediate neighbours and setting about protecting yourselves. This can be regarded as the politics of defeat, but the fact is that you cannot win if someone else does. It is at this point that you need to establish an overt relationship with your neighbours and a covert one with one or more of the other side of the survivors from the other side. This latter "secret alliance" can work well in splitting the major alliance and gaining you ground when the situation stabilises to the extent that you can start looking forward to your own expansion again.  

It’s why talking to other players, even if they’re your active enemies is pretty much essential.  Most times it makes the game more fun, too!

This is true, even when the other half of the board is not immediately adjacent. Let us postulate a situation where Germany has Bel, Hol, Den, Par, Mar, Mun, Ber and Kie, while England has Nwy, Swe, Spa, Por, Bre, Lon, Lpl, Edi. In the Eastern part of the board, you are Turkey and have come under an attack from an Austro-Russian alliance while Italy has belatedly come to your assistance. You know that Italy is likely to come under attack by a combination of England and Germany. This looks reasonably good for survival (which it is) but it is not a good situation. England and Germany will both make headway against the opposition with your four or five centre country sniping away and weakening any defence your current enemies can make. If they split their forces and attempt to contain you whilst defending themselves, the result is a slow but gradual extirpation of your neighbours - both England and Germany will gain as many centres as you AND they are already ahead of you.

Staring Disaster in the Face

So, if you're not well ahead or at least as equally ahead as the other side of the board, then it is worth exploring ways in which the remainder of the board can stop the big boys carving the rest of you up. It is important to do this sooner than later. The real danger signals are when a unit from a reasonably settled part of the board crosses the major stalemate line (which is StP, Lvn, War, Sil, Boh, Tyr, Pie, GoL, WMS, NAf). If this has happened, then it's time to shut up shop and stop them getting any further, whichever country you are. The same is true to a limited extent when Turkey, France or Austria crosses the minor stalemate line of the ION, when Germany rounds the Straits of Gibraltar, and when Russia gets a foothold across the North Sea. This often means that they've achieved a position whereby it is going to take a concerted effort to stop them winning and thus stop you from winning.

How will you win?

It is worth restating that to win a game you have to eventually capture 18 supply centres. Many inexperienced players overlook this obvious fact and don't have a "shopping list" of centres that they will need to win. Let us look at the centres, given a normal sort of game, which are normally on that list (Those that are occasionally added to the core list to complete the wining pattern are shown after the totals and in italics):

Western Triangle:

England: Lon, Lpl, Edi, Bre, Par, Spa, Por, Hol, Bel,Den, Nwy, Swe, Kie, Mun, StP, Ber, Mar (17) Tun, Ven, Rom, Nap, War, Vie

France: Bre, Par, Ma, Lon, Lpl, Edi, Spa, Por, Hol, Bel, Den, Nwy, Swe, Kie, Mun, Ber (16) Tun, Ven, Rom, Nap, War, Vie, Tri

Germany: Kie, Mun, Ber, Bre, Par, Mar, Lon, Lpl, Edi, Spa, Por, Hol, Bel, Den, Nwy, Swe (16) Ven, Rom, War, Vie, Tri, StP, Mos

Eastern Square:

Austria: Vie, Bud, Tri, Ser, Gre, Bul, Rom, Ven, Con, Rum, Ank, Nap, Smy, Mos, Sev, War, Tun (17) Mar, Spa, Por, Mun, StP, Ber

Italy: Nap, Rom, Ven, Tun, Tri, Vie, Bud, Gre, Ser, Con, Smy, Ank, Sev, Mos, Rum, War, Bul (17) Mar, Spa, Por, Mun, StP, Ber, Par

Turkey: Con, Smy, Ank, Nap, Ven, Rom, Tun, Tri, Ve, Bud, Gre, Ser, Sev, Mos, Rum, War, Bul (17) Mar, Spa, Por, Mun, StP, Ber

Russia: Mos, War, StP, Sev, Nwy, Swe, Rum, Bud, Vie, Tri, Ser, Gre, Ank, Smy, Con, Bul, Ven, Rom, Nap (19) Mun, Kie, Ber, Den, Hol, Edi, Lon, Tun, Bel

Although the Eastern side of the board has more potential areas for expansion, it also has more competitors for each supply centre then the western side of the board. You can also see that StP only appears in the core list for England and Russia. This is because it is relatively easy to stitch that side up against invaders by supporting the unit there already, which in most cases is either English or Russian. If these two countries have been eliminated (or are in anarchy) there is nearly always someone in a position to support a StP unit to stop someone else's onward progression.

It is crucial, therefore, that you try and get across one of the stalemate lines which will enable you to secure those extremely difficult last two or three supply centres. I will never vote for a win concession (unless it's me that's going to win!) if the major country has failed to "cross the line". Until that point, any player, no matter how good, can be stopped. Of course, there is always the possibility that some idiot is prepared to sacrifice a share in the draw for a petty and self-immolating revenge.

How Do You Improve Your Chances Of Winning?

There are a number of basic concepts which I use to judge how well I'm doing in a game and to assess how I can improve my situation.

Security

This is quite a simple concept to understand and it is measurable. You can establish how secure a supply centre is by counting the number of your units which can move to it and the number of other units which can move to it. If you have more units or the same number of units adjacent to you supply centres, then you're relatively safe.  (Obviously, there may be localised areas where this is not the case.)  If less units, then you are not secure and you should establish security as a priority. You can refine this by grading your security level and by grading the units next to your supply centres according to the reliability of your allies, but don't forget that you really rather encourage them towards indiscretion and they can stab you at any time. Similarly, you can count the number of units with two moves of your centres as an approximation of your medium term security.

Lebensraum

This relates to your "hit list" of supply centres. It is a count of current supply centres, plus a count of those which you might be able to get in the short term by a judicious stab. If the stab leaves you secure and in a good position to continue your onwards expansion then it is well worth doing. This assessment also gives you a idea of how close to victory (or not) you are.  Conversely if the stab doesn’t achieve this then DON’T STAB. 

Allies and Enemies

This is much more difficult to judge. It depends on your assessment of how reliable your allies are and how implacable your enemies. But that is only one part of the story. You mustn't just view your own situation. You have to view the alliance structure of the whole board and it can also be helpful to assess other countries' security and lebensraum. And the only way to do this is to have regular communication with all the other players, even the ones who appear to be implacable foes. This is because players cannot avoid giving away information if they write back; and even if they don't, a significant minority of players will act upon your suggestions, even if they don't reply! Besides which, you can stuff them up with apparently true information. Very, very, few people will throw a letter away without reading it and it is rare that they would fail to take the information in.  But don’t lie... just emphasise the facts you want them to act on.

Having assessed all these factors, you are in a much better position to determine your future strategy and to decide what to do and when to do it.
 

I mentioned stabbing. A stab (except for the first few moves) should be used sparingly and only when (a) it is required to put you in a winning position and offers significant gains; and (b) you can hold what you've taken. Ration yourself to perhaps one or two stabs a game. Whenever possible resist the temptation to lie about what you are going to do - lying destroys credibility, so you might as well only lie if you are going to get something out of it. 

(First published in Gallimaufry Issue 53, edited and updated this date.

Memories of a sausage...

In 1964, in the international restaurant at the only campsite in Leningrad, I ate a small piece of sausage, which the person behind the counter had taken off the counter (with her sausage like fingers*) put into a saucepan of theoretically hot water, pulled out, cut into four 2" long chunks put onto 4 flyblown plates and put them onto the counter. She put her hand out for the roubles, which was about £10 (a helluva lot of money in those days). It had so much gristle in it that I could not finish it. 

We came across her sister driving a huge road engine, laying tarmac, arms as thick as my thighs.  This was in the middle of Leningrad.  I'd like to tell you the name of the street, but because it was the cold war, there were no street maps available, apart from one in a 1901 St Petersburg Baedeker my father had purchased from a second-hand stall**.  All the road names were in Cyrillic script, without Latin equivalents...  This 'great adventure' as my father called it, started to turn into a film noire when one of the traffic policemen (loudhailer on chest, red in face, brandishing pistol) got off his platform, shouting at us to stop.....

We had been driving the wrong way up a one-way street... matters were not aided by my brother whispering "burn on, Dad, burn on!" while this bloke, now almost purple with rage at these law-breaking capitalists sitting like stupid oxen with total ignorance on their faces at his language. We were, in fact, lying capitalists, because we could certainly understand the word passport, and we had no intention of giving them to him... we made our escape by being shepherded in reverse all the way back down this street by the by now furious cop!

(A picture of a very similar dormobile)

Back at the campsite after these twin delights, my mother decided to cook us egg and chips in our battered old dormobile. One of the simplest, but most welcome meals we had.  But there was a catch: one of the proscribed items listed on our visa was potatoes, so we had to dispose of the potato in an open drain.  There was to be more clandestine disposal before we would leave the Soviet Union, but perhaps another time.

*she looked like a gurning Arthur Mullard, and you could see tracks of all the food she'd handled and 'cooked' on her off-white apron, her face set in a permanent scowl....

**Sadly this was worth a lot more than he realised, in today’s prices £1,652!

Well, that was a bit of a gap...

So, where have I been, briefly:

Since I last wrote I've nearly died three times.  On one occasion my blood pressure dropped to  68 over 38, I collapsed on my stairs, upside down; the district nurse who found me after 23 hours, called the ambulance.  She thought she wouldn't see me again. Another occasion after a three month patch in hospital, my hands went blue - that was a kidney infection too, but complicated by Raynaud's disease - a beautiful pastel blue, whilst it was sealing the capillaries and destroying the nerves in my finger ends. And to cap it all, I had to sleep on a special bed (a Nimbus 3) which they put together wrong and gave me a monster pressure sore, which has lead to severe contact dermatitis.. I dropped 97 lbs in weight...  I am the lightest I've been since I was 12 years old.

So not only am I recovering these, but also from the leg ulcers with periodic infections [at one point I had to fight to get the consultant not to cut my left leg off), kidney problems.  Please ignore any typos... I  have to use a wireless keyboard, holding it in my left hand while pecking at it with the other as I can't sit down.  It's going to be a very long time before I'm entirely better, but given that I was in hospital for the best part of 9 months, and nearly died...  The  cause of the repeated, deadly kidney infections was a nearly undetectable layer of infected tissue in a thigh which appeared perfectly OK on the outside.

As you can guess I've been concentrating on staying alive and looking after myself.  No council help for moi....  a real catch 22 situation, but it has forced me into being active and getting around the house which is improving my muscle tone. 


Bless the majority of those working in the NHS, which is under immense pressure.  I may resume my rants, but the very few rotten apples, and the occasional honest mistake should not hide the honest effort that health professionals put into the job.  So thank you to the staff of 4 hospitals and 9 wards!  But there are major dysfunctional aspects caused by managerial and administrative staff making decisions that impact on the core aspects of the clinical role.  However, the biggest culprit have been successive governments, whose inability to realise that constantly reorganising demotivates and confuses  staff


So that's where I've been!